Why do independent miners frequently win block jackpots in "lottery-style" mining?

Written by: Mat Di Salvo, Decrypt

Compiled by: Feilx, PANews

Last week, another Bitcoin miner broke the norm by independently processing a block and received a reward of 3.125 Bitcoins. At that time, the reward (including transaction fees) was $259,637. In recent months, there have been multiple instances of independent miners digging out Bitcoin blocks.

Is it about the luck of the miners? Is independent mining becoming more common? Can ordinary people connect a hobbyist mining machine and achieve success with minimal resources compared to publicly traded miners?

The answers vary. The term "independent miner" is used to describe various types of miners, from individual hobbyists to groups that prefer to operate discreetly and cautiously. Their success rate is increasing, but not significantly— and the total number is unlikely to surge dramatically.

Scott Norris, CEO of independent Bitcoin miner Optiminer, stated that mining without support from large mining pools "is still like playing the lottery."

In 2022, independent miners using Solo CKPool (a service that allows anonymous miners to mine without running their own full Bitcoin node) processed 7 blocks. In 2023, this number jumped to 12 blocks. In 2024, this number reached 16 blocks.

However, using Solo CKPool to mine blocks does not necessarily mean that someone is mining Bitcoin alone in their bedroom with a very low hash rate. Some crypto enthusiasts have suggested this, but it is incorrect.

The mining pool industry is dominated by a few large companies, such as Foundry, AntPool, and F2Pool. Miners connect to the pool, share resources, and distribute rewards. Using services like Solo CKPool, miners receive rewards once they find a block and keep almost all of the rewards.

With the development of the Bitcoin network, mining requires more power and resources, and mining is typically operated by publicly listed companies. Some Bitcoin enthusiasts believe this is detrimental to Bitcoin because the Bitcoin network should be as decentralized as possible.

Amateur mining devices like Bitaxe and FutureBit Apollo, priced between $200 and $500, have now become the favorites among "Bitcoin extremists." In January this year, a FutureBit Apollo processed a block, thanks to a non-profit organization donating hash power from other machines to this one.

At that time, the anonymous Bitcoin miner Econoalchemist expressed on platform X that their idea was to "dismantle the proprietary mining empire, allowing everyone to access Bitcoin and free technology."

Although the likelihood of realizing this vision is small, the rise of amateur miners in recent months may be driving a significant increase in the success rate of individual mining.

Econoalchemist stated: "Every so often, and with increasing frequency, a Bitaxe or similar small mining device independently processes a block and quietly operates in someone's home."

Scott Norris from Optimer pointed out that companies can handle blocks by having a large hash rate instead of going through large mining pools.

Even Solo Satoshi, based in Houston, Texas, which sells mining equipment like the Bitaxe Gamma, stated on its website that using a Bitaxe machine worth $180 with a hash rate of 1.2 TH/s gives a daily chance of mining one block of 0.00068390%.

But Matt Howard, the founder of Solo Satoshi, stated that investing in independent mining is not necessarily for profit. "The primary goal is to further decentralization. Finding a block and receiving Bitcoin rewards is an added benefit. For Bitcoin extremists, they understand that mining needs to be decentralized."