Dogecoin: Has the Downtrend Cycle Ended Yet? A Reality Perspective from VisionPulsed's Analysis

On August 20th, cryptocurrency analyst VisionPulsed provided a "cold and realistic" view of Dogecoin in his latest video, dousing cold water on the recovery hopes that are spreading on social media. He stated that Dogecoin is unlikely to have a sustainable upward trend until two external macro factors signal "risk-on": Ethereum breaks its historical peak and the Russell 2000 index surpasses its previous high. "We remain bearish until Russell breaks the top and ETH breaks the top," he emphasized, pointing out that the absence of these two factors explains why familiar cyclical signals are no longer effective with altcoins in the current phase. 175 Days of Sideways – Accumulate or Stagnate? The video opens with a gentle irony – "every day is a decline, forever declining" – VisionPulsed quickly gets straight to the data. He notes that Dogecoin has created higher lows and higher highs since October 2023, but in reality, for the past 175 days, the price has been mostly flat: "The price of Dogecoin has done nothing for almost 7 months... we are in 175 days of sideways." He compares this phase to previous long-term accumulation periods, when multi-month "consolidation" phases often led to strong explosive moves: "On the big picture, this can be seen as a positive signal... There was a time we sideways for over 400 days before breaking out."

However, he also acknowledged that the current context is quite different from previous cycles. The Old Cycle Is No Longer Valid VisionPulsed argues that the familiar "formulas" that once predicted altseason have completely broken. The two popular scenarios – Dogecoin surging after Bitcoin halving and Bitcoin breaking its peak pulling DOGE along – have both failed in this cycle: "If you look at the halving... Dogecoin usually 'flies to the moon' about 240–260 days after halving. It has been nearly 500 days now and there are still no signs." "Bitcoin breaks historical peak, previously Doge would reach a new high... Now Bitcoin breaks the peak, Doge doesn't budge. Still bearish." According to him, there are currently only two conditions that have not yet been activated to transition to the growth phase of altcoins: ETH hitting a new peak and Russell 2000 successfully breaking out. Russell 2000 & ETH – The Key to Altseason? From a broader market perspective, VisionPulsed believes that the breakout of the small-cap Russell 2000 index may pave the way for a decline in dominance and provide momentum for altcoins. Conversely, a failure will "reset the clock:" "Everyone is thinking this is altseason, but if Russell drops, Bitcoin dominance will go back up. It is very likely that this will happen." Similarly, Ethereum is seen as the most important indicator for the flow of money into altcoin. Only when ETH breaks its peak will he consider shifting from a "bullish" sentiment to "excited".

Sentiment – No Retail, No Wave In addition to price data, VisionPulsed also emphasizes the market sentiment factor: the interest from retail is declining sharply. "It is very likely that one day, my video will have less than 2,000 views... Google Trends also confirms. No one is here anymore." For him, the absence of retail FOMO indicates that the market is still in an incomplete transition phase, rather than a "compressed spring" ready to explode. Conclusion – Cannot Confirm That Dogecoin Has Finished Its Down Cycle The analysis ends as it began: Dogecoin has not been able to escape the narrative of a downturn solely based on the intrinsic signals of the crypto market. As long as Ethereum and the Russell 2000 have not broken their highs, Dogecoin will remain constrained in the accumulation zone and the altcoin market will not be able to return to the strength seen in previous cycles. "When Russell peaks and Ethereum peaks, I will really be excited. But right now, we are not there," VisionPulsed asserted.