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According to the latest analysis report, the US dollar may face further depreciation pressure. This prediction is mainly based on the poor performance of US economic data and the market's new interpretation of Fed policy direction.
The report points out that although inflation remains at a high level, the Fed seems to be preparing to restart interest rate cuts. The employment data in July was worse than expected, coupled with concerns about the Fed's independence, leading the market to expect that the Fed may implement interest rate cuts more quickly and more significantly than previously thought.
It is worth noting that lowering interest rates in a situation where inflation is not yet fully under control may create favorable conditions for the depreciation of the dollar. In this context, the euro to dollar exchange rate is expected to show an upward trend. Specifically, the euro to dollar exchange rate may rise from the current 1.1620 to 1.20 by the end of this year, and continue to climb in the coming years, potentially reaching 1.25 by the end of 2026.
This trend forecast reflects the market's concerns about the outlook for the US economy and monetary policy, while also suggesting potential changes in the global economic landscape. However, given the complexity and uncertainty of the global economy, the actual exchange rate trends must closely monitor changes in various factors.