Solana: Set a price suggestion for a breakout to $268

Solana (SOL) is currently trading around $181.7, continuing to challenge the key resistance zone of $185–190. This is seen as a crucial level that could open up a new growth phase if the price successfully breaks through, with targets set at $205, $225, and $268.

Solana consolidates around resistance zone

At the time of writing, Solana (SOL) recorded a slight increase for the day, but is still facing pressure as it has decreased by up to 8.2% over the past week. The daily trading volume reached $5.7 billion, indicating that the inflow of capital into the market remains relatively positive despite price fluctuations.

Observing the daily chart, SOL is forming an ascending triangle pattern – a technical signal often associated with the potential for a breakout in the upward direction. This cryptocurrency has repeatedly tested the resistance zone of $185–$190 but has not been able to decisively break through. Analyst Jonathan Carter noted that Solana is currently in the retest phase of the resistance zone after a previous false breakout, and if successful, a confirmed breakout will strongly reinforce the bullish structure.

On the contrary, the upward trend line around $165 along with the 100-day moving average (MA100) is currently serving as an important support level. If this level is breached, the technical structure will weaken, increasing the risk of a deeper correction.

Regarding the technical indicators, the RSI is currently oscillating in the neutral zone, not yet entering a state of overbought, which means SOL still has room for growth. Meanwhile, the trading volume data shows that buying pressure tends to increase stronger during upward movements, reflecting that market sentiment still leans towards the buyers.

Based on the summarized signals, the bullish scenario will be reinforced if Solana can successfully break through the zone of $185–190, opening up opportunities to reach higher levels in the short term.

On-chain perspective

Source: GlassnodeOn August 18, data from Glassnode showed that the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) of Solana reached 0.9988. The fact that this index is below the threshold of 1 reflects that the majority of investors are taking profits at a slight loss or breaking even, after Solana fell from the 200 zone earlier this month. This is a signal indicating that short-term market momentum has somewhat weakened, as selling pressure has increased after a hot growth phase.

According to analyst Ali Martinez, if the resistance level of $185–190 continues to hold, Solana may face the risk of retracing to the zone of $180 or even $160 – price levels that have previously served as important support zones.

However, fundamentally, Solana still demonstrates superior strength. Over the past weekend, the network processed more than 100,000 transactions per second (TPS), peaking at 107,540 TPS. Although most of this volume comes from "noop" orders (dummy orders used to test performance), the results still show the impressive scalability and processing speed of the Solana mainnet.

In addition, the number of wallets holding over 10,000 SOL has risen to a record high, reflecting a strong accumulation trend from large investors (whales) even as prices fluctuate. This is seen as a fundamental factor reinforcing confidence in the long-term prospects of the Solana ecosystem.

Currently, Solana is in a state of "fragile balance." A convincing breakout above the 190 dollar zone could act as a catalyst for a new rally, with targets of 205 – 225 – 268 dollars respectively. Conversely, if it fails and simultaneously loses support around 165 dollars, the bullish structure will be broken, leading to the risk of a deeper correction.

Overall, Solana still maintains a positive outlook in the medium and long term, thanks to its strong network performance and signs of accumulation by whales. However, in the short term, the resistance zone of 185–190 dollars will continue to be a "hot spot" that the market closely monitors to determine the next trend.

Taylor