In the face of speculation about whether Ethereum can break through the $5000 barrier, market observers should focus on several key factors rather than simply predicting rises and falls.

Looking back at the historical performance of Ethereum, the target of $5000 is not an unattainable goal. During the bull market of 2021, ETH once soared to a high of $4868, just a step away from $5000. Even in the highly volatile market environment of 2022, ETH reached a peak of $3800. As the cryptocurrency market gradually recovers from the bear market and Bitcoin stabilizes above the $30000 mark, the opportunity for mainstream cryptocurrencies to catch up is becoming apparent, and as the second largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, Ethereum naturally becomes the focus of investors.

The continuous development of the Ethereum ecosystem provides strong support for its price. The booming development of Layer 2 scaling solutions is particularly noteworthy. Arbitrum's daily active addresses remain stable at around one million, while Optimism has reduced transaction costs to one-tenth of the Ethereum mainnet. These scaling solutions have greatly improved the usability and efficiency of the Ethereum network. Additionally, after the Shanghai upgrade, approximately 24 million ETH have been staked, accounting for nearly 25% of the total circulation, which has alleviated some of the selling pressure in the market.

However, the rise of Ethereum is not smooth sailing. The direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains an important variable. If the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, it may lead to tighter liquidity in the cryptocurrency market. The interest rate hike cycle in 2022 caused ETH to fall from over $4000 to $880. In addition, if the much-anticipated Cancun upgrade is delayed, it may affect the performance optimization progress of Layer2, thereby impacting the attractiveness of the entire ecosystem. Regulatory risks cannot be ignored either; if Ethereum's PoS mechanism is deemed a security by regulators, it could trigger massive sell-offs in the short term.

Overall, while the $5000 target is not out of reach, achieving this goal is not an easy task either. Market liquidity, the development process of the ecosystem, and overall market sentiment are all factors that need to be closely monitored. For traders, rather than overly focusing on specific price targets, it is more important to pay close attention to changes in the total locked value (TVL) of Layer 2 and indicators such as ETH staking volume, as these are the true "barometers" reflecting the price trend of Ethereum.