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The probability of the Fed lowering interest rates in September has risen to 82.5%, and there may be another 25 basis point cut in October.
[Block Rhythm] On August 12, according to Fed observations: the probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate unchanged in September is 17.5%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 82.5%.
The probability that the Fed will maintain the interest rate unchanged in October is 6.5%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 41.5%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 52.0%.