Analysis of the peak that Bitcoin may reach in this cycle

As Bitcoin shows unprecedented bullish momentum, an inevitable question arises: How high can the price of Bitcoin actually rise in this market cycle? This article will explore a series of on-chain valuation models and cycle timing tools to analyze potential peak price targets for Bitcoin. Although predictions cannot replace data-driven flexible responses, these analytical frameworks can help us better understand the current market position and possible future directions.

Price Prediction Tool

Several historically accurate valuation models can provide a strong contextual reference for market behavior. When macroeconomic indicators, derivatives, and on-chain data start to issue warning signals, it is usually a good time to take profits, regardless of whether a specific price target has been reached. Nevertheless, exploring these valuation tools remains instructive and can assist strategic decision-making when combined with broader market analysis.

Key models include the following types:

1. Top Cap (Top Cap): Predict peak valuation by multiplying the historical average market cap by 35. This model accurately predicted the peak in 2017 but failed to accurately predict the 2020-2021 cycle. Currently, the model predicts over $500,000, which seems increasingly unrealistic.

2. Delta Peak (Delta Top): Generates more grounded predictions by subtracting the average market value from the realized market cap ( based on the cost basis of all circulating BTC ). This model predicted a top of $80,000 to $100,000 in the previous cycle.

3. Terminal Price (: Based on the coin age destruction calculation adjusted for supply, this is the model historically closest to each peak, including the $64,000 top in 2021. The current forecast is approximately $221,000, which may rise to $250,000 or higher, and is considered the most credible model for predicting the macro Bitcoin top.

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Peak Prediction

The MVRV ratio is another powerful indicator that compares market capitalization to realized capitalization, providing a window into investor sentiment. This ratio typically peaks around 4 during major cycles, and it is currently at 2.34, indicating significant room for further appreciation. Historically, when the MVRV approaches 3.5 to 4, long-term holders begin to realize substantial gains, usually marking the maturation of the cycle. However, due to diminishing returns, we might not reach a full 4 in this cycle. Using a more conservative estimate of 3.5, we can begin to predict a more realistic peak.

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Calculate Target Price

Timing and valuation are equally important. By analyzing "BTC growth since the self-cycle low point", we find that the previous Bitcoin cycles peaked about 1060 days after the low point. Currently, we are about 930 days into this cycle. If this pattern continues, the peak may arrive in about 130 days.

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Historically, FOMO-driven price surges typically occur at the end of cycles, leading to a rapid increase in the realized price. Assuming that due to diminishing returns, the growth rate is halved again, the realized price is expected to increase by 65% from the current $47,000, potentially reaching around $78,000 by October 18.

Combining the expected price target of $78,000 and a conservative MVRV target of 3.5, we arrive at a potential price peak for Bitcoin of $273,000. While this seems ambitious, historical parabolic surges indicate that such a trend could occur in weeks rather than months. Although the expected peak is more likely to be between $150,000 and $200,000, mathematical and on-chain evidence suggests that higher valuations are at least possible. It is worth noting that these models dynamically adjust, and if market euphoria intensifies at the end of the cycle, predictions could quickly accelerate further.

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Conclusion

Predicting the exact peak of Bitcoin is inherently uncertain, as there are too many variables to fully account for. What we can do is establish a probabilistic framework based on historical precedents and on-chain data. Tools such as the MVRV ratio, terminal price, and Delta peak have repeatedly proven their value in predicting market tops. While a target of $273,000 may seem optimistic, it is rooted in historical patterns, current network behavior, and cyclical timing logic. Ultimately, the best strategy is to react based on data rather than fixed price levels. Utilize these tools to refine investment hypotheses, but remain flexible enough to take profits in a timely manner when the broader ecosystem begins to signal a top.

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