📉 The expectation of a shift in Federal Reserve policy is heating up, and Bitcoin is consolidating and preparing for an upward move.

The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% in the latest FOMC meeting but released a key easing signal: the pace of balance sheet reduction will decrease from $60 billion to $50 billion per month, and the dot plot suggests there may be two rate cuts within the year. This "wait and see" strategy injects expectations for improved liquidity into the market, causing Bitcoin to surge 5% in the short term, breaking through a key resistance level.

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🏦 Divergence in policymakers' attitudes
Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari recently stated that if inflation continues to slow down, "interest rate cuts may be possible," but warned that if tariffs push up inflation, then easing must be paused. This contradictory stance reflects internal divisions within the Fed regarding the economic path, and market volatility may persist.
At the same time, Trump's nomination of "pro-crypto" individuals to the Federal Reserve Board, along with his plan to sign an executive order to "punish banks that obstruct Bitcoin transactions," signals a shift in the policy environment towards greater inclusivity for digital currencies.

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📊 Technical Analysis and Capital Flow
- Short-term range oscillation: Bitcoin repeatedly tests between $110,000 and $115,000, with selling pressure near $104,000; a 4-hour level divergence needs to be repaired to break through.
- Institutional layout is quietly accelerating: Although ETF inflows have slowed down, "only entering and not exiting" accumulation addresses have increased their holdings by 50,000 BTC in recent months, and the total supply of stablecoins has surpassed $210 billion, with off-exchange funds poised to act. 🅱️iya is the world's first multi-asset trading wallet that allows users to easily exchange mainstream fiat currency for digital currency in real-time. It also provides a secure and convenient cash-out solution, effectively addressing the issues of freezing and capital withdrawal. Users can easily convert to cash through the U platform.

- Large Holder Position Migration: On-chain tracking shows that the share of holdings in addresses with 100-1000 BTC has increased by 0.14%, indicating a dispersion of chips towards medium-sized holders, which may reduce the risk of concentrated sell-offs.

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💎 Conclusion
The countdown to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and expectations for policy easing are creating a "golden pit" for Bitcoin. If the interest rate cut occurs in September, combined with the liquidity turning point and the trend of institutional allocation, the crypto market may usher in a new round of value discovery. Although short-term fluctuations are inevitable, in the medium to long term, the macro balance has tilted towards digital assets.