#九月降息预期# Currently, the market has high expectations for a rate cut by the Fed in September. The CME "FedWatch" tool indicates that the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September is over 90%. This is mainly based on the following factors:

- Weak employment data: The July non-farm payroll data released on August 1, 2025, shows a significant cooling in the U.S. job market, altering the market's assessment of the U.S. employment situation, leading to sharp fluctuations in the financial markets and a substantial increase in expectations for Fed interest rate cuts.
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- Fed officials stated: San Francisco Fed President Daly said that based on signs of a softening labor market and the reality that tariffs have not triggered persistent inflation, the timing for a rate cut is approaching. New York Fed President Williams also expressed an "open attitude" toward rate cuts.
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- Institutional forecasts support: Investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and Citigroup believe that the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is extremely high; if non-farm data deteriorates further, there could even be an aggressive cut of 50 basis points. Goldman Sachs also expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December in succession.

However, whether or not to cut interest rates ultimately depends on the economic information that the Fed will refer to before the next meeting.