Recently, ETH has taken up the banner of the bull run. After pulling back to the 3200-3300 range, it has clearly stabilized. Now it holds above 3500. From a technical perspective, the daily chart has broken through the previous consolidation platform, and the MACD has formed a golden cross pattern with higher trade volumes. This rebound is indeed strong—behind it, the ecological heat is providing support: the total lock-up position of Layer2 has exceeded 30 billion dollars, and the daily active users of DeFi protocols on Arbitrum and Optimism have doubled. Additionally, the Ethereum Foundation has recently increased its stake in ETH, strengthening the consensus among institutions regarding its status as the leader in smart contracts. Once the pullback is complete, there is strong support for a push to 4000.

As for the stagnation of Bitcoin, the core issue is "capital diversion". This round of market hotspots has shifted from "Bitcoin's dominance" to "ecological rotation". When ETH rises, funds not only flow into it but also into the altcoins within its ecosystem (such as L2 tokens and DeFi leaders). Bitcoin has temporarily become a "ballast stone" and a reservoir for funds, making it difficult for it to break out — but this is a good thing; mainstream coins are holding steady, which gives altcoins the confidence they need.

The upcoming "altcoin season" is indeed worth watching: usually, once ETH holds above a key position, funds will flow down the ecological chain, such as cross-chain tokens that interact deeply with Layer 2, middleware projects related to ETH staking, and even platform tokens of NFTs that have significantly dropped in price earlier. These targets have much greater elasticity compared to mainstream coins. However, it must be remembered that the premise of the altcoin season is that Bitcoin should not crash; as long as it holds above the 115000 support, everything will be fine. As long as mainstream coins stabilize, it is highly likely that funds will rotate into altcoins.