The Interaction Between the Macroeconomic Environment and the Crypto Market: April Market Review and Outlook

In April, the global financial markets experienced severe fluctuations. The "tariff war" officially began, triggering a surge in market panic and a significant downward adjustment in asset prices. However, as Trump's stance softened and U.S. economic data showed relative resilience, investor confidence gradually recovered, and funds began to flow into U.S. stocks and the crypto market.

After undergoing preliminary adjustments, Bitcoin saw a strong rebound in April, rising 14.11% in a single month, recovering from previous declines. This trend is attributed to the improvement in internal chip structure and support from large-scale buying. Both the S&P 500 and the crypto market have recovered from the declines since the tariff war, demonstrating strong market resilience.

However, whether the market can achieve a true reversal remains to be seen, and further developments in the tariff dispute and confirmation of U.S. economic data will need to be monitored. In this process, the market is expected to face many ups and downs.

Macroeconomics: The tariff war triggers drastic market adjustments

In early April, Trump announced tariffs on global goods, triggering a panic sell-off in financial markets. The three major U.S. stock indexes fell below their yearly averages, and the bond and currency markets also experienced significant volatility. However, as Trump's stance softened and economic data remained relatively strong, market sentiment gradually improved.

Inflation data shows signs of cooling, and the job market remains resilient, temporarily alleviating market concerns about an economic recession. Although tariff negotiations are still ongoing and challenging, forward-looking capital has begun to position itself, driving a strong rebound in U.S. stocks.

Currently, market pricing is relatively adequate, and future trends will depend on the progress of tariff negotiations and economic data performance. If the economy shows signs of deterioration, it may trigger another market adjustment.

Crypto Assets: Improved Chip Structure Supports Strong Rebound

Bitcoin's performance in April can be described as a "reverse trading" model. At the beginning of the month, it followed the market's decline, but then strongly rebounded, rising 14.11% for the month. This performance benefited from the improvement in the chip structure during the previous adjustment, the increase in institutional investors' holdings, and the support from favorable policies and applications.

Multiple U.S. states are advancing Bitcoin reserve bills, which are expected to further promote the mainstreaming of Bitcoin. Although the market may still face volatility in the short term, Bitcoin's long-term upward trend remains intact.

Capital Flow: Tens of Billions of Dollars Flow In to Drive Market Rebound

In the second half of April, as market sentiment improved, a large amount of capital flowed into the crypto market. According to statistics, the net inflow of funds in April exceeded 8.4 billion USD, and combined with the increase in holdings by institutional investors, the total inflow surpassed 10 billion USD.

The sources of funds mainly include Bitcoin spot ETFs, institutional investors increasing their holdings, and on-chain stablecoin funds. Although the market has experienced severe fluctuations, from the perspective of fund flows and chip structure, the overall market is still in an upward cycle.

Outlook

After recent adjustments, the internal structure of the crypto market has become more stable. Long-term holders have increased their positions, and the pressure of floating losses on short-term investors has been eliminated, providing support for the market's upward movement. However, the uncertainty of the external environment remains high, especially regarding the potential impact of tariff disputes on the global economy, which requires close attention.

While we remain optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term trend, we must still be vigilant about the fluctuations that external factors may bring in the short term. Market participants should exercise caution and closely monitor the macroeconomic situation and policy changes, adjusting their investment strategies as appropriate.